Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu ZEAL Network SE

Unternehmen: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 10.11.2023
Kursziel: EUR 51,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q3 review: superb Games kick-off, chg. est & PT

Topic: ZEAL released better than expected Q3 results with strong billings
and sales driven by heightened jackpots and user activity. More
importantly, the Games roll-out came in strong.

The first-time impact of Games came in much stronger than anticipated with
EUR 16.7m in billings (vs eNuW: EUR 2.5m), showing that demand for the new
product is high. This impact should further increase as Q4 Games billings
are seen at EUR 19m (eNuWold: EUR 4.5m). Consequently, we also significantly
raise our FY'24e billings estimate to EUR 80m (old: EUR 46m), but stay at a EUR
10m sales contribution due to a reduced gross margin estimate.

Billings from Lottery came in at EUR 221m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: EUR 213m; 9M: EUR
633m, +16% yoy) thanks to an increased user activity of 1.22m monthly
active users (eNuW: 1.15m MAU) coupled with average monthly lottery
revenues per user of EUR 7.44 (eNuW: EUR 7.99). The increase in user activity
was driven by the strong Lotto 6aus49 in Q3, which peaked twice in a row.

Sales arrived at EUR 31m, +24% yoy (eNuW: EUR 29m; 9M: EUR 86m, +16% yoy) thanks
to the strong Lottery billings as well as the stellar debut of Games (EUR
1.2m, 7% gross margin; eNuW: EUR 0.6m, 22% gross margin). The lower than
expected Games gross margin was due to the still small portfolio of only 28
games so far and is expected expand to 12.5% in FY24e thanks to the
continuous addition of higher margin games (see p. 2 for details).

The EBITDA of EUR 9.4m, +68% yoy (eNuW: EUR 8.1m; 9M: EUR 23.1m, +5% yoy), came
in much better than expected thanks to operating leverage as total OpEx
(including personnel & marketing expenses) only rose by 11% yoy to EUR 22m
(eNuW: EUR 21.5m).

Against this backdrop and given an average jackpot development in Q4, the
FY23 guidance seems well in reach: Lottery billings of EUR 800-830m could
even be exceeded (eNuW: EUR 841m), whereas sales of EUR 110-120m (eNuW: EUR 115m)
and an EBITDA of EUR 30-35m (eNuW: EUR 33m) should be reached between mid-point
and the upper end.

Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for the structural outperformer
with lots of growth potential in the German lottery market and raise our PT
to EUR 51.00 (old: EUR 50.00) based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28215.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Quelle: dpa-AFX