Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD

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Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu THE NAGA GROUP AG

Unternehmen: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 17.01.2024
Kursziel: 1.20
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Strong FY23 prelims and merger with Capex.com; chg

Last week, NAGA reported preliminary FY23 figures that came stronger than
expected. Further, the company has announced (at the end of 2023) a planned
business combination with Capex.com. In detail:

- Sales came in at EUR 45.5m (-21% yoy), significantly above our estimates of
EUR 38.1m. As Q4 trading activity of 95 trades per active customer (-14% qoq
vs eNuW: 109), number of trades of 2.0m (-14% qoq vs eNuW: 2.4m) and number
of active customers of 21k (1% qoq vs eNuW: 22k) are below our
expectations, we assume that revenue per trade was rather stable at c. EUR
4.0 (eNuW), resulting in brokerage revenues of some EUR 8m. We assume that
the remaining EUR 9m in Q4 were stemming from crypto trading revenues that we
consider as one-off.

- EBITDA stood at EUR 7.0m (vs -13.7m in FY22 vs eNuW: EUR 4.3m), thanks to the
strong topline as well as operational and marketing efficiency: Personnel
and other operating expenses should have declined by 26% and 25% yoy to EUR
7.9m and EUR 4.6m (eNuW), while marketing expenses are down by 79% to EUR 5.9m
resulting in the best ever gross customer acquisition cost of EUR 447 (-57%
yoy).

Apart from that, NAGA announced the intention to join forces with capex.com
- a fast growing multiasset broker with licenses in Europe and Abu Dhabi -
through the contribution of all shares in the parent company of the Key Way
Group into NAGA Group AG for c. 170m new NAGA shares that have to be newly
issued. The joint Group plans to generate USD 250m in sales and generate
40% EBITDA margin by FY26e (vs USD 90m sales and USD 6m in FY23e).
Management is expecting direct cost synergies of c. USD 10m, which seems
reasonable. In order to finance the growth, the Capex.com CEO and future
NAGA CEO Octavian Patrascu is expected to personally inject EUR 8.2m into the
company via a convertible bond (zero coupon).

On the back of declining trading activity in Q4, we remain cautious looking
into 2024, still expecting sales of EUR 41.8m and EBITDA of EUR 8.0m, not
considering any one-offs. Synergy effects from the business combination as
well as one-offs could provide further upside.

Reiterate HOLD with an unchanged PT of EUR 1.30 based on DCF. Please notice
that we do not consider the business combination in our estimates until the
deal is closed.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28689.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Quelle: dpa-AFX