Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG

Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 11.70 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2022
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker

Stronger focus on customer growth, financial flexibility through capital
increase, forecasts raised, target price: EUR11.70

As expected, The NAGA Group AG (NAGA for short) has been able to continue
its impressive growth course in 2021. This is evident from both the
published half-year report 2021 and the preliminary figures for the third
quarter 2021 published at the same time. After nine months of 2021, the
company reports a doubling of sales revenues to around EUR 40.5 million (9M
2020: EUR 20.0 million). On the one hand, NA-GA is benefiting from a market
environment characterised by high volatility. In addition, NAGA's
management has made significant investments to increase brand and product
awareness, which is reflected in continued customer growth. In the first
three quarters, 218,000 new users were added, surpassing the 1.0 million
registered account mark. In the first six months, marketing expenses
climbed significantly to EUR 10.75 million (H1 2020: EUR 2.88 million).

Despite visibly expanded marketing activities, EBITDA improved to around
EUR 8.6 million in the first nine months (9M 2020: EUR 5.8 million) and is
thus even significantly above the EBITDA generated in the full year 2020
(2020: EUR 6.57 million). Accordingly, NAGA's management continues to
expect an increase in revenues to up to EUR52 million (achievement level
after nine months: 77.9%) and EBITDA to up to EUR15 million (achievement
level after nine months: 57.3%) in 2021.

First and foremost, NAGA will continue to keep marketing activities high in
order to accelerate the growth rate of new customers. For the full year,
marketing expenses (including main sponsorship of Sevilla FC) are expected
to amount to approximately EUR 22.0 million (2020: EUR 6.6 million).
Following the largest capital increase in the company's history, the
growth-oriented corporate strategy has a substantial financial cushion in
this respect. In September 2021, growth capital of EUR 22.7 million was
raised in a capital increase.

Further growth drivers are likely to be the product launches that have
already taken place and others that are in the pipeline. With NAGA Pay, for
example, a new payment platform has been introduced to the market. NAGA Pay
combines an IBAN account, a Visa debit card, a share deposit account and
physical crypto-wallets (licensing for crypto-wallets is still pending).
With this app, customers should be more integrated into the NAGA product
world. In addition, NAGA customers have been able to trade physical shares
at a very competitive price of EUR 0.99 per trade since October 2021.
Finally, an expansion of the business base is also to take place through
geographical expansion. The focus is on Australia, South Africa and the
United Arab Emirates.

In our view, once the product range is largely developed, NAGA will focus
even more on customer growth and thus expand its marketing activities even
more than we expect. While we are only making a small forecast adjustment
for the current 2020 financial year with estimated sales of EUR 54.06
million (previous estimate: EUR 51.00 million), we expect significantly
higher growth rates for the coming financial years. For 2022, we expect
revenues of EUR 81.10 million (previously: EUR 66.30 million) and for 2023
of EUR 113.53 million (previously: EUR 66.30 million). In view of higher
marketing expenses, the EBITDA margin should be below our previous
estimates. In absolute terms, however, EBITDA should increase significantly
from 2023 onwards.

The significant adjustment of our revenue estimates and, from 2023, the
higher EBITDA estimate, which at the same time forms the basis for the
continuity phase of our DCF valuation model, have led to an overall
increase in the fair value of the company. Even taking into account the
extensive capital increase, we are raising our price target to EUR11.70
(previously: EUR 9.10). We thus continue to give the rating BUY.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/23047.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) Completion: 08/11/21 (08:28 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 08/11/21 (10:30 am)

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Quelle: dpa-AFX